Pakistan still central to Iran-US diplomacy | The Express Tribune

With chances of imminent talks between Iran and the United States diminished, the focus has also shifted away from Islamabad, at least for now.

Pakistan has remained in the global spotlight since the US and Iran first agreed to a temporary ceasefire three weeks ago, which led to the groundbreaking direct talks between the two adversaries since 1979.

During the last 10 days or so, Pakistan twice came close to arranging another round of talks. But Iran’s preconditions, such as lifting the US naval blockade, prevented the second round from happening.

Since then, backchannel diplomacy has taken over. Islamabad may no longer be in the spotlight, but it remains a pivotal player guiding behind-the-scenes efforts.

It was via Pakistan that Iran recently shared a proposal with the United States to end the war.

While the exact details were not available, the proposed plan envisaged first the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz before serious discussions on other issues, including Iran’s nuclear program.

The US said it would not accept the current Iranian proposal.

In a social media post on Tuesday, US President Trump said Iran had informed the US it is “in a ‘State of Collapse,'” insisting Tehran wants the Strait of Hormuz open as “they try to figure out their leadership.”

Apart from differences on major issues, Iran and the US have divergent approaches on how to end the conflict.

Iran wants a step-by-step approach and does not want to sign a deal in a hurry. The US, meanwhile, is pushing for an “all-in-one deal” envisaging all contentious issues, including the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear matters.

Washington feels that lifting the naval blockade in return for reopening the Strait of Hormuz would take away its key leverage at the negotiating table.

With the US having reservations over the Iranian proposal, American media reports suggest that Tehran may soon submit a revised set of plans via Pakistan to Washington.

This shows that the diplomatic process, even if moving at a slow pace, has not halted.

Iran, meanwhile, is, in parallel, trying to develop a regional framework bypassing the US to deal with some of the pressing issues.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to Oman and Russia, while also making two stopovers in Islamabad.

Similarly, the top Iranian diplomat spoke to the Saudi, Qatari, French and Turkish foreign ministers to discuss the evolving situation.

While Russia supported Iran and President Putin offered to help resolve the issue, Oman seems not inclined to accept Iran’s proposal of exercising joint control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Separately, an extraordinary meeting was convened by Saudi Arabia of the Gulf countries to discuss possible options.

But forging unity among the ranks of Gulf countries suffered a blow when the UAE decided on Tuesday to exit the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a cartel that controls the supply of oil to ensure price stability in the market.

Some observers see it as the first major sign of how the Iran-US war has changed the global order forever.

The UAE has decided to exit OPEC, a cartel established in the 1960s to regulate the supply of oil in international markets.

OPEC, which initially had five members, was later joined by other oil-producing nations. It controls 36 per cent of the global supply of crude oil and holds 80 per cent of global crude oil reserves.

OPEC limits its members’ production in order to maintain price stability in the market.

The UAE, the second-largest producer in OPEC, wanted to increase supply but could not do so since the cartel did not allow it.

Now, after exiting OPEC, the UAE can increase its oil supply.

This may increase competition and benefit end consumers.

But the downside is that this may increase volatility in the markets, and other nations may also exit OPEC.

This is just one aspect. There will be a new security architecture in the region post-Iran-US war, according to some observers.

It is only the beginning, they add.